Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 12.989024 15.826276 18.981513 22.728873 27.035546 31.807451 37.471197
2026-01-18 9.161507 12.867960 17.438628 23.393562 30.844019 39.751845 51.092140
2026-01-25 6.635776 10.509400 15.708793 22.991962 32.703768 44.971191 61.372445
2026-02-01 5.184617 9.121760 14.803084 23.249754 35.098367 50.714026 72.377398
2026-02-08 3.975550 7.761046 13.618793 22.825593 36.347796 54.852093 81.359705
2026-02-15 3.031634 6.571435 12.438142 22.159833 37.059358 58.155816 89.253255
2026-02-22 2.550127 6.046296 12.183428 22.800404 39.632331 64.107942 100.988804
2026-03-01 2.017508 5.287474 11.399355 22.467667 40.644661 67.806847 109.656443
2026-03-08 1.646054 4.747952 10.895994 22.503213 42.173853 72.280143 119.569189
2026-03-15 1.245052 4.024259 9.919864 21.585182 42.052237 74.203325 125.761670
2026-03-22 1.072008 3.781530 9.829471 22.213700 44.489781 80.132997 138.127050
2026-03-29 0.901989 3.493737 9.595256 22.535685 46.403692 85.301446 149.505040
2026-04-05 0.750936 3.225270 9.394659 22.972420 48.676388 91.361955 162.852326
2026-04-12 0.634968 3.020046 9.304732 23.626396 51.400085 98.324333 177.961058
2026-04-19 0.486171 2.641294 8.731605 23.220501 52.153358 102.057545 188.096474
2026-04-26 0.395900 2.420281 8.495747 23.480223 54.133580 107.903511 201.794287
2026-05-03 0.299267 2.116679 7.977351 23.052744 54.757091 111.442507 211.850027
2026-05-10 0.217575 1.815779 7.389736 22.381757 54.832767 114.004459 220.356641
2026-05-17 0.183694 1.720879 7.372752 23.027357 57.551571 121.302117 236.954038
2026-05-24 0.136859 1.515051 6.969024 22.692012 58.248016 125.014124 247.633799
2026-05-31 0.106041 1.373088 6.730461 22.727837 59.698903 130.127491 260.833519
2026-06-07 0.070585 1.149007 6.147966 21.802568 59.042656 131.339234 267.358646
2026-06-14 0.058785 1.095787 6.158874 22.436049 61.770568 138.915650 285.122748